Why did the earthquake in Turkey make the winter more difficult for Europeans?

According to the latest reports, since February 6, when two 7.8-magnitude earthquakes hit Turkey, more than 1,100 earthquakes have occurred in Turkey.

More than 17,000 people in Turkey were killed in a deadly earthquake in 2000.

Why did the earthquake in Turkey make the winter more difficult for Europeans?

Turkey straddles the Eurasian continent, surrounded by sea on three sides, and is an important transportation hub.

After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Turkey relied on its unique geographical location and diplomatic strategy to have both sides.

On the one hand, it provides weapons to Ukraine, and on the other hand, it maintains close economic and trade relations with Russia.

He also regarded himself as a "mediator" and helped the Russian and Ukrainian armies realize the "captive exchange" and, together with the United Nations, contributed to the conclusion of the agreement on the Black Sea Food Corridor.

Turkey unexpectedly became one of the "winners" in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

In September last year, the "Beixi 1" and "Beixi 2" pipelines that transport natural gas from Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea were bombed one after another, and they have not yet been repaired.

This also ruined the possibility of Russia resuming gas supply to Europe through the Nord Stream pipeline.

Beixi was bombed, and Turkey benefited.

In addition to "Beixi No. 1" and "Beixi No. 2", there is another pipeline that transports natural gas from Russia to European countries, namely the "Turkish Creek" pipeline.

The "Turkish Stream" pipeline starts from Russia, crosses the Black Sea to the Thrace region of Turkey, and supplies gas to some countries in Eastern and Southern Europe.

The pipeline started construction in 2017 and will be completed in 2020, with a designed annual gas transmission capacity of approximately 31.5 billion cubic meters.

Although the gas transmission volume is lower than that of the Beixi pipeline, fortunately, the pipeline only passes through Russia, the Black Sea and Turkey, and is not restricted by a third country, so it is safer.

Therefore, after the Nord Stream pipeline was destroyed, the importance of "Turkey Creek" began to be highlighted.

The conflict between the EU and Russia has intensified due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but it cannot be denied that the EU still needs Russian natural gas.

Russia also wants to continue selling natural gas to the EU, both to make money and to maintain ties with the EU.

The most practical and "decent" way is to find a country to "transit".

In this way, Turkey became the obvious choice.

In October last year, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Putin reached an agreement to establish an international natural gas hub in the Thrace region of Turkey. European countries can also "curve to save the country" and obtain Russian natural gas from Turkey.

Once it is envisaged, Turkey will gain both fame and fortune. On the one hand, it will resell natural gas in the middle, earning the price difference and making a lot of profits; on the other hand, it will become an important natural gas hub in the European continent, and its political status and regional influence will be greatly improved.

It's not over yet.

After reaching an agreement with Russia, Turkey has used its expertise in "both sides and right sides" to get on the line with Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan.

In 2018, Turkmenistan's natural gas reserves once ranked fourth in the world. As of August 2022, there are 149 proven natural gas fields and condensate gas fields, with a gas storage capacity of more than 4.97 trillion cubic meters.

Turkmenistan is rich in natural gas resources, but due to its distance from Europe, its export volume has been unable to increase.

Well now, the three countries have reached an agreement.

Build a natural gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan, then connect to the Trans-Anatolian pipeline jointly built by Azerbaijan and Turkey, and finally connect to Europe.

In this way, Turkmenistan's natural gas can be exported to Europe through pipelines.

In this way, Turkey has become a hub for Turkmenistan's natural gas to enter the European market.

Turkey's thinking is not difficult to understand.

The more countries connected, the more natural gas will be transferred, the more money will be earned, and the higher the international status will be.

More importantly, in case Europe and the United States are ruthless, they will completely abandon Russia's natural gas.

Turkey can't do Russia's natural gas business, at least there is a Turkmenistan.

The EU is also happy to see the results, after all, it can increase the supply of natural gas.

Now, Turkey has been hit by a deadly earthquake that occurred once in 2000, adding variables to the natural gas hub.

On the one hand, the construction of natural gas hubs requires massive capital investment.

Turkey's economy is already in a mess.

In 2022, Turkey's inflation rate will be as high as 80%, making it one of the countries with the most serious inflation in the world.

According to the World Health Organization, as many as 23 million people may be affected by the strong earthquake, including about 5 million poor people.

According to a preliminary estimate by the U.S. Geological Survey, the strong earthquake may cause a loss of about 2% of Turkey's GDP, and future post-disaster reconstruction funds may account for 5.5% of Turkey's GDP.

With this minus and one plus, the Turkish economy can be described as worse.

This is not counting other impacts such as the slump in tourism caused by the earthquake.

It is hard to say whether Turkey still has the energy and financial resources to build a natural gas hub.

On the other hand, the earthquake brought uncertainty to the presidential election.

The natural gas hub was promoted by the current President Erdogan.

The sudden earthquake has brought new variables to Turkey's upcoming general election in May, and Erdogan is also facing the biggest political test since he has been in power for 20 years.

If Erdogan fails to be re-elected, the relationship between Turkey and Russia, the European Union, and the United States may change, which in turn will affect the construction of natural gas hubs.

Based on comprehensive judgment, the envisaged natural gas hub may face twists and turns, which will eventually affect the natural gas supply in Europe.

The winter for Europeans this year may be even more difficult.

Whether it is international relations or economic and trade exchanges, they are all grand narratives.

Under a strong earthquake, we should pay more attention to our personal destiny.

After the disaster, the Chinese government will provide Turkey with 40 million yuan of emergency assistance in the first batch, including dispatching heavy-duty urban rescue teams, medical teams, and providing urgently needed disaster relief materials for Turkey.

All walks of life in China have also extended a helping hand to Turkey and Syria.

The Red Cross Society of China has provided US$200,000 in aid to Turkey and Syria respectively.

Local Chinese and overseas Chinese are raising relief supplies such as tents and blankets.

In addition, Chinese social rescue forces have successively gone to the disaster-stricken areas to carry out rescue.

Wish the Turkish people an early victory over the disaster and rebuild their homes.